船舶搁浅概率的模糊事件树分析

针对常规事件树不能考虑基本事件发生概率的不确定性这一现状，通过引入模糊集的概念，将常规事件树中基本事件的发生概率模糊化，推导了模糊事件树的相关算法，采用模糊事件树方法得到船舶搁浅的模糊概率，并进行了敏感性分析，确认减小船舶搁浅事故发生概率的相关措施，与常规事件树方法的计算结果比较表明，模糊事件树方法不仅能达到常规方法的分析目的，而且有助于了解船舶搁浅的发生可能性的分布规律，为船舶运营的风险管理提供了依据。

Fuzzy Event Tree Calculation of Ship Grounding's Probability

The uncertainty of basic events' probabilities could not be taken into account in an ordinary event tree method. A suitable fuzzy number was introduced to represent the failure probability of basic event after the fuzzy based event tree arithmetic was deduced. The fuzzy probability of ship grounding was calculated by fuzzy arithmetic, some grounding risk reducing measures were verified by sensitivity analysis, which can be applied in the risk management of ship. The results were compared with some of the ordinary event tree methods, which shows that this method not only can reach the same analysis aim as the event tree, but also is helpful to know more the possibility distribution rule of ship grounding.