技术变迁路径依赖的演化博弈分析

针对学术界对技术变迁过程中路径依赖的争议现象,运用演化博弈的非对称复制动态博弈模型进行分析.结果显示:技术变迁过程可能出现非效率技术"锁定",也可能出现非效率技术被更有效率的技术取代;最终哪个技术取得优势地位,受初始状态、策略的集体改变、技术兼容性等多方面因素影响.因此,演化的结果具有复杂和不确定性,路径依赖和非路径依赖都可能存在,而且路径依赖在一定条件下可以破解.

The Evolutionary Game Analysis on Path Dependency in Technology Change

There is a controversy in the phenomena of path dependence in technology change. The asymmetric replicator model shows that in the process of technology change, inefficient technology that causes lock-in may be adopted by market.However,more efficient one in some situations could replace the inefficient technology.Since the result of which one will take advantages is decided by many factors such as(initial) condition,collective change of strategies,new entrance and technological compatibility,both path dependency and lock-out could be explained in the complex and uncertain evolutionary process.