基于改进德尔菲法的舰船总体方案群决策方法

根据舰船总体方案决策的特点,引入基于优化模型的改进德尔菲法.将群决策与个体决策方案排序关系转化为布尔矩阵,通过群决策与个体决策的布尔矩阵元素差值来反映决策结果的群体一致性,建立了基于排序一致性的优化模型.通过全息粒子群算法在修正区间内对专家初始打分矩阵进行调整,寻找满足群体一致性的可行解.构造专家意见的可信度函数,对修正后的专家评价值进行整体可信度分析,使决策达成群体一致性的同时兼顾决策可信度.应用实例对比分析表明,该方法在舰船多方案优选时具有较好的最优方案稳定性及决策可信性.

Group Decision-Making Method of Warship Overall Scheme Based on Improved Delphi

According to the characteristics of the overall scheme decision-making of warships, the improved Delphi was introduced for decision making. The scheme’s sequence of group and individual decision was transformed into a Boolean matrix. The difference of group and individual Boolean matrix elements reflected the group consistency of decision-making. Then, the optimization model based on sort consistency was constructed. The initial scoring matrix was adjusted within the correction range by FIPSO to search the feasible solution that can satisfy group consistency. The credibility function was built to analyze the overall credibility of the revised evaluation, and the credibility was also taken into account besides group consistency. The comparative analysis of an application example show that the method has well optimal decision stability and decision making credibility.