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通勤出行时间与方式选择
引用本文:鲜于建川,a,隽志才,朱泰英b.通勤出行时间与方式选择[J].上海交通大学学报,2013,47(10):1601-1605.
作者姓名:鲜于建川  a  隽志才  朱泰英b
作者单位:(1.上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院,上海 200052; 2.上海电机学院 a.商学院;b.数理教学部,上海 201306)
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51008190), 中国博士后科学基金(2012M520904; 2013T60452), 上海电机学院项目(10C201), 上海电机学院重点学科建设项目(10XKJ01)
摘    要:针对不同方式通勤出行者在出行时间上的差异性,从通勤出行方式对通勤出行时间的影响出发,将通勤出行方式选择和出行时间选择纳入同一模型系统,建立由离散选择模型和线性回归模型组成的离散 连续模型,对通勤出行方式和出行时间选择及其相互影响模式进行了深入分析.研究表明,通勤出行方式对出行时间选择有显著影响,通勤者年龄、性别及其家庭成员结构、工作活动属性及通勤途中的非工作活动安排等都是出行方式和出行时间选择的重要影响因素.本研究对准确预测通勤出行选择行为及其对交通管理工作的影响有重要意义.

关 键 词:通勤出行    出行时间    出行方式    离散-连续选择模型  
收稿时间:2012-08-03

Selection of Commute Trip Timing and Mode
XIANYU Jian chuan,a,JUAN Zhi cai,ZHU Tai yingb.Selection of Commute Trip Timing and Mode[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2013,47(10):1601-1605.
Authors:XIANYU Jian chuan  a  JUAN Zhi cai  ZHU Tai yingb
Institution: (1. Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China; 2a. Business School; 2b. Department of Mathematics and Physics, Shanghai DianJi University, 201306, China)
Abstract:The selection of trip timing and mode are two critical decisions of each commuters’ daily travelling behavior. Since there are significant differences in observed home-work departure time distributions by different mode of commute, this paper provides an integrated treatment of commute mode and time of day explicitly considering the influence of mode selection on departure time selection. In this paper the joint model of mode selection and home work trip timing is estimated using a discrete-continuous econometric model, which allows for unrestricted correlation between the unobserved factors influencing the two decisions. Strong correlations between unobserved factors influencing mode selection and trip timing are found. Furthermore the estimated model proves that age, gender, household member structure, activity and travel characteristics of the commuter are all important influencing factors for the two decisions. These findings have important implications for commuter travel behavior analysis and transportation managemnet.
Keywords:commute trip  departure time  mode choice  discrete continuous econometrics model  
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