| 基于非平稳面板计量方法的房地产价格非理性繁荣检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 柯昇沛,黄静,屠梅曾.基于非平稳面板计量方法的房地产价格非理性繁荣检验[J].上海交通大学学报,2011,45(12):1807-1811. |
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| 作者姓名： | 柯昇沛 黄静 屠梅曾 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院，上海 200052； 2.上海师范大学 商学院，上海 200234） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71103121); 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2011EJL002) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国30个大中城市1998~2009年季度面板数据，采用非平稳面板计量方法对房价与房租之间的长期均衡关系和Granger因果关系进行分析.结果表明：各大中城市的房价与租金之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，并且这种长期均衡关系在各城市间存在较大的差异；短期而言，各大中城市的房价与租金之间不存在Granger因果关系，长期来看，房价是租金的Granger原因，但租金不是房价的Granger原因，表明房价已脱离租金所确定的基本面，中国房地产市场存在非理性的繁荣.
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| 关 键 词： | 房价 租金 非平稳面板计量 非理性繁荣 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-12-29 |
An Empirical Analysis on the Irrational Exuberance of Chinese Cities' Housing Prices Based on Non-stationary Penal Econometrics Methods |
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| KE Sheng-pei,HUANG Jing,TU Mei-zeng.An Empirical Analysis on the Irrational Exuberance of Chinese Cities' Housing Prices Based on Non-stationary Penal Econometrics Methods[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2011,45(12):1807-1811. |
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| Authors: | KE Sheng-pei HUANG Jing TU Mei-zeng |
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| Institution: | (1. Antai College of Economics & Management， Shanghai Jiaotong University， Shanghai 200052,China; 2. Business College, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper re-investigated the co-movement and the granger-causality relationship between housing price and rents by using the quarterly panel date from the 30 cities of China and the new non-stationary penal econometrics methods.The paper has solved the questions of small sample and the difference of different cities.The empirical results provide clear support of a long-run co integration relationship between housing price and land price.But the relationships are different in different cities.The evidence ... |
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| Keywords: | housing price rents the non-stationary penal econometrics methods irrational exuberance |
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