三峡库区塌岸预测评价方法初步研究

水库塌岸是影响三峡水库的重大地质灾害问题.作者在分析三峡库区塌岸类型和传统塌岸预测方法的基础上,提出塌岸预测应根据不同的塌岸类型,建立适合的塌岸预测模型.冲(磨)蚀型和坍(崩)塌型的塌岸预测可以用本文提出的岸坡结构法;滑移型的塌岸预测,应以本文提出的极限平衡搜索预测法和FLAC3D数值模拟预测法的预测结果为主要依据.通过对三峡库区重庆段的两个典型塌岸地段及代表性地质剖面的预测,验证了这种思路的正确性;并总结了适合三峡库区这种山区型水库的塌岸预测的原则和方法.

A preliminary study on the methods of predicting reservoir bank collapse in the Three Gorges areas

Reservoir bank collapse is one of the most severe geological disasters. It influences the security of the Three Gorges Project Region. On the basis of analysing the types of the reservoir bank collapse, the authors present the methods of predicting collapse in the Three Gorges areas and suggest that suitable prediction methods should be established to different types of the reservoir bank collapse. The Bank Slope Structure Prediction Method of this paper should apply to the types of erosion and collapse, the limiting equilibrium prediction method and FLAC^3D numerical simulation prediction method should apply to the type of slipping. Through two classical examples of the reservoir bank collapse in Chongqing, the methods are proved feasible and applicable. At last, this paper summarizes the prediction fundamental and methods of the reservoir bank collapse of the mountain areas like the Three Gorges project.