| 两种降尺度方法对钱塘江流域日设计暴雨计算的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 张徐杰,马冲,朱仟,泮苏莉,许月萍.两种降尺度方法对钱塘江流域日设计暴雨计算的影响[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2014,53(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张徐杰 马冲 朱仟 泮苏莉 许月萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江大学水文与水资源工程研究所，浙江 杭州 310058 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部国际科技合作计划资助项目(2010DFA24320);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379183) |
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| 摘 要： | 研究气候变化对水资源的可能影响,能让人类在面临气候变化时能够及时地采取相应措施。利用大气环流模式HadCM3的结果和国家气象局提供的钱塘江流域7个站点1961-1990年逐日实测气象资料,选取A1B排放情景,分别通过动力降尺度方法和统计降尺度方法,分析2011-2030时期(2020s)的日设计暴雨,并对两种方法计算得出的设计暴雨进行比较。结果表明,除个别站点外,在A1B情景下,两种降尺度方法下极端暴雨出现的频率相比基准期都有所增加,其中动力降尺度方法下不同重现期的设计暴雨值增幅更大。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 降尺度方法 PRECIS LARS-WG 降雨频率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-05-20; |
Design Storm Estimation Using Two Downscaling Methods in Qiantang River Basin |
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| ZHANG Xujie,MA Chong,ZHU Qian,PAN Suli,XU Yueping.Design Storm Estimation Using Two Downscaling Methods in Qiantang River Basin[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2014,53(1). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xujie MA Chong ZHU Qian PAN Suli XU Yueping |
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| Institution: | Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China |
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| Abstract: | Studying the impacts of climate change on water resource can help human beings take measures when facing problems. The results of HadCM3 and 7 meteorological sites’ daily data supplied by China Meteorological Administration in Qiantang River Basin are used to estimate design storms in 2020s under A1B scenario by both dynamic and statistical downscaling methods. The final results show that extreme storms will increase in 2020s under A1B scenario. Besides, the design storms for different return periods calculated through the dynamical method will increase more than those calculated through statistical method. |
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| Keywords: | climate change downscaling method PRECIS LARS WG precipitation frequency |
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