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塔里木河流域干旱风险评估与区划
引用本文:孙鹏,张强,邓晓宇,白云岗,张江辉.塔里木河流域干旱风险评估与区划[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2014,53(3):121-127.
作者姓名:孙鹏  张强  邓晓宇  白云岗  张江辉
作者单位:1. 中山大学 水资源与环境系//广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室//华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东 广州 510275;
2. 新疆水利水电科学研究院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐830049
基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划(201331104);国家自然科学基金(41071020);“中山大学博士研究生创新人才培养基金”联合资助项目
摘    要:选取不同尺度的标准化降水指数为危险度指标和9个干旱易损度指标建立塔河流域的干旱风险评估模型,并分析了塔河流域干旱危险度、干旱易损性及干旱风险度的空间变化特征,研究结果表明:1)塔河流域北部和西部地区的SPI3的干旱危险度高,南部和东部地区干旱危险度低;塔河流域中部和西北部地区SPI12的干旱危险度高。塔河流域西北部和西南部地区的干旱易损度高于其他地区,其中西南部地区的干旱易损度最高。农业人口比重、总抚养比和因旱农业经济损失占GDP比重与干旱易损度的相关性最高。2)塔河流域中部地区和西部地区的女性与男性比、人口密度、文盲率、抚养比、农业人口比重、灌溉面积比重大于其他地区;中部地区和西部地区的粮食产量低于塔河流域其他地区。3)塔河流域西部的干旱风险等级是最高的,其次塔河南部和西北部地区的干旱风险等级较高,东北地区和东南地区的县市的干旱风险度较低。

关 键 词:干旱危险度  干旱易损性  干旱风险评价  塔里木河
收稿时间:2013-09-17;

The Risk Evaluation and Division of the Tarim River Basin
SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,DENG Xiaoyu,BAI Yungang,ZHANG Jianghui.The Risk Evaluation and Division of the Tarim River Basin[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2014,53(3):121-127.
Authors:SUN Peng  ZHANG Qiang  DENG Xiaoyu  BAI Yungang  ZHANG Jianghui
Institution:1. Department of Water Resources and Environment //School of Geography and Planning, Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo simulation//Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
2. Xinjiang Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Urumqi 830049, China
Abstract:A multi-index drought risk assessment model was developed to combine the strengths of standard precipitation index at different time steps for drought hazard index and composite drought vulnerability indices in the Tarim River Basin (TRB). The spatial temporal patterns of drought hazard, drought vulnerability and drought risk are analyzed. The results indicate that: (1) Drought hazard is higher in northern and eastern TRB than other areas at 3 month step. It is high in central and northwestern parts at a 12-month time scale. Drought vulnerability index in northwestern and southwestern TRB is higher than other areas. Moreover, drought vulnerability is the highest in southwestern TRB. The correlation coefficients between drought vulnerability index and percentage of agricultural population, dependency ratio, percentage of agricultural economic loss are higher than other drought vulnerability indices. (2) The vulnerability indices including F, P, I, D, A and I in middle and western TRB are higher than indices in eastern and northern TRB, while F is opposite. (3) Droughts pose the highest risk to the western districts of the TRB, while drought risk is the lowest in northeastern and southeastern TRB.
Keywords:drought hazard  drought vulnerability  drought risk assessment  tarim river basin
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