城市生态安全评价与预测模型研究

利用深圳等8个城市1992-2002年间资源环境状态、资源环境压力和人文环境响应3个子系统共21个指标,运用主成分分析法确定指标的权重,加权求8个城市不同年份生态安全指数值,再用逐步回归法构建不同显著水平的3个预测模型,并验证2002年的实证数据。研究结果显示:大连、深圳在不同年份内生态安全指数都较高,基本处于生态安全水平,上海与重庆的城市生态安全指数值最低;三个回归模型显示出非常相似的评价结果,并与PSR模型有相似的变化趋势,表明3个回归模型预测城市生态安全的结果是可靠的。

Assessment and Prediction Models of Urban Ecological Security

Statuses and dynamics of ecological security of 8 important cities in China from 1992 to 2002 were simulated by multiple regression models which were established upon some resources and environmental indices.In this paper,21 indices belonging to subsystems of environmental resource pressure,environmental status and responses of social environment were selected.Each security index and its weight in urban ecosystem were calculated.Three predication models were established with those indices and gave simulative assessment to 8 cities.Assessment results showed Dalian and Shenzhen have relatively better urban eco-environment as their high integration indices,Shanghai and Chongqing have the lowest indices of eco-security.The three regressive models gave very close assessment results and had the similar tendency to the results of PSR model in ecological security for 8 cities in 2002.It means the three models are reliable to simulate and predict urban ecological security.