| 新疆HIV传播的动力学分析与模拟 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 唐丹丹,王凯,李冬梅,张利萍,张学良.新疆HIV传播的动力学分析与模拟[J].北华大学学报(自然科学版),2015(2):150-154. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 唐丹丹 王凯 李冬梅 张利萍 张学良 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐,830011;新疆医科大学医学工程与技术学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐,830011 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，新疆自然科学基金项目，新疆研究生科研创新项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过对HIV病毒传播机理的分析,利用动力学方法建立HIV传播的动力学模型,分析影响疾病传播和控制的关键因素.通过模型分析得到了决定疾病传播与否的基本再生数R0,证明了R01时疾病将会消除,R01时疾病将变成一种地方病.用收集和估计的参数对模型进行了数值模拟,分析新疆HIV的流行状况,给出了模型参数的敏感性分析.
|
| 关 键 词： | HIV 基本再生数 传染病动力学模型 数值模拟 |
Analysis and Simulation of Dynamic Model of HIV Transmission in Xinjiang |
| |
| Tang Dandan,Wang Kai,Li Dongmei,Zhang Liping,Zhang Xueliang.Analysis and Simulation of Dynamic Model of HIV Transmission in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Beihua University(Natural Science),2015(2):150-154. |
| |
| Authors: | Tang Dandan Wang Kai Li Dongmei Zhang Liping Zhang Xueliang |
| |
| Institution: | Tang Dandan;Wang Kai;Li Dongmei;Zhang Liping;Zhang Xueliang;College of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University;College of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University; |
| |
| Abstract: | By analyzing the mechanism of HIV virus transmission and using the dynamics method, HIV transmission dynamic model is built,the key factors influenced the spread of disease and control are analyzed. The model analysis to get the basic reproductive number R0 decide the spread of disease or not,it proves that when the basic reproductive number R0 is less than 1,disease will eliminate. When the basic reproductive number R0 is greater than 1,the disease will become endemic disease. Stimulating the model number through collecting and estimating parameters,HIV epidemic status is analyzed in Xinjiang,sensitivity analysis of model parameters are given. |
| |
| Keywords: | HIV basic reproductive number infectious disease dynamics model numerical simulation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
