可变模糊决策理论及其在水库防洪调度决策中应用

首先建立可变模糊决策(优选)理论,提出以对立模糊集概念为基础的可变模糊决策模型与方法.其特点是模型及模型中的参数权向量可以变化以提高系统决策的可靠性.其次,根据水库调度决策中汛期各阶段目标重要性的不同,应用非结构性决策模糊集分析的二元比较法确定水库防洪调度目标的经验权重(主观权重).最后,将可变模糊决策模型与方法用于丰满水库洪水调度,实例表明,该方法科学实用,能够提高水库防洪调度决策支持系统的决策可靠性.

Variable fuzzy decision-making theory and its application to decision-making \=supporting system for reservoir flood control operation

Variable fuzzy decision-making (optimization) theory is established. Based on the conception of opposed fuzzy set, the variable fuzzy decision-making model and corresponding method are proposed. One characteristic of the model is that it can heighten the reliability of decision-making system by variability of model and its parameters. And the other is that it can apply method of pair-wise comparison of unstructured decision-making fuzzy set analysis to confirm experiential weights (subjective weights) of objects of reservoir flood control operation. Finally, the model and corresponding method are applied to flood operation of Fengman reservoir. The case study shows that the model and corresponding method are scientific and practical, and can heighten decision-making reliability of the decision-making supporting system for reservoir flood control operation.