基于可变模糊集理论的径流预报单要素近似推理法

在深入研究径流中长期预报的单要素预报模糊推理方法基础上.针对其中应用传统的模糊分布函数来描述模糊子集的不合适问题.结合可变模糊集理论,提出了基于可变模糊集理论的径流预报单要素近似推理法;与原有的单要素预报的模糊推理方法相比,新方法可以科学合理地确定待预报径流量隶属干模糊子集区闻的隶属庹,使模糊推理方法更趋完善;详细介绍了新方法的基本原理及步骤;将新方法应用于磨盘山水库年径流预报,验证了方法的科学合理性.

Runoff forecasting approximate reasoning method with single factor based on variable fuzzy set theory

By the study of fuzzy reasoning runoff forecasting method with single factor, a new method for mid-long runoff forecasting, named approximate reasoning method with single factor, is proposed based on variable fuzzy set theory, which overcomes the inapplicability of the existing method based on fuzzy subset membership function and can scientifically determine the relative membership degree at fuzzy subset intervals. The principle of new method is introduced in detail, and is used to forecast the yearly runoff of Mopanshan Reservoir. The case study shows that this method is scientific and feasible.