| 系统非线性组合预测方法及在黄河凌汛预测中应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈守煜,冀鸿兰,张道军.系统非线性组合预测方法及在黄河凌汛预测中应用[J].大连理工大学学报,2006,46(6):901-904. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈守煜 冀鸿兰 张道军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学,土木水利学院,辽宁,大连,116024 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了提高预测的精度，尤其是冰凌中长期预测的精度，基于工程模糊集、人工神经网络、遗传算法与组合预测理论，提出了系统非线性组合预测方法，给出了黄河内蒙段冰凌三种单一预测模型的非线性组合预测值．结果表明，所建立的非线性组合预测方法物理意义明确，数学推导过程严谨，预测精度高于任意单一预测模型．
|
| 关 键 词： | 系统预测 非线性组合预测 黄河凌汛 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-8608（2006）06-0901-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-01-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-01-102006-10-15 |
Application of non-linear combination forecast method of system to ice flood prediction of the Yellow River |
| |
| CHEN Shou-yu,JI Hong-lan,ZHANG Dao-jun.Application of non-linear combination forecast method of system to ice flood prediction of the Yellow River[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2006,46(6):901-904. |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Shou-yu JI Hong-lan ZHANG Dao-jun |
| |
| Institution: | School of Civil and Hydraul. Eng., Dalian Univ. of Technol., Dalian 116024, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the combination of engineering fuzzy set theory and artificial neural network theory as well as genetic algorithms and combination forecast theory, the non-linear combination forecast method of system is established for accuracy enhancement of prediction, especially of ice flood prediction. The non-linear combination forecast values from single forecast model for Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River are given. The case study shows that the method has clear physical meanings and precise consequences. Compared with any single model, the non-linear combination forecast method of system is more rational, effective and accurate. |
| |
| Keywords: | system forecast non-linear combination forecast ice flood of the Yellow River |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
