GMPC模型在事故征候预测中的实现

事故征候数据的研究对航空安全管理有至关重要的作用,以科学的算法对其预测更是事故预防的关键。以2003~2012年这十年的事故征候数据和运营飞机数据为基础,通过统计运算处理,结合GM(1,1)模型和马尔科夫模型优点,建立GMPC模型,实现动态预测,可为民航安全管理提供决策依据。实践表明,该模型在预测未来一两年的事故征候数据时较为准确,作为短期预测民航安全趋势是可行的。

Realization of GMPC Model in Incident Prediction

Research on incident prediction data has great impact on aviation safety management,application of a scientific algorithm even makes the key point.Based on dataofa decade from2003~2012 incident and dataofoperati ng aircraft ,combined with advantagesofGM（1,1） model and Markova model,GMPC modelwasbuilt up and programm ed .Thiscanprovidedecisionbasistoaviation safety management.Practice indicates that this model can predict accurately one or two year incident data in future ,so it can be a short-term prediction in aviation safety tendency.