铁路客货运量预测的随机灰色系统模型

针对现有铁路客货运量预测方法的不足和铁路客货运量的随机波动性,基于灰色预测理论,建立了铁路客货运量预测的随机灰色系统模型.该模型在对客货运量原始数据生成处理的基础上,建立了符合检验要求的残差GM(n,h)模型,以预测铁路客货运量的发展趋势;再通过引入相对误差序列的随机过程,建立了随机GM(n,h)模型,以综合考虑随机因素对铁路客货运量未来发展趋势所带来的影响,提高铁路客货运量预测的精度.理论分析和实例计算结果表明:随机灰色系统预测模型直观,且操作性强,预测结果精度较高.

Stochastic Grey System Model for Forecasting Passenger and Freight Railway Volume

Considering the imperfections of existing forecasting methods of passenger and freight railway volume and the stochastic fluctuation of the volume, based on the theory of gray system, the stochastic grey system model for forecasting the passenger and freight volume was established. After the original data being generated and processed, residual GM(n,h) model was developed to forecast the development trend of the volume. Stochastic GM(n,h) model was established by the introduction of stochastic process of relative error series, and this stochastic model can give comprehensive analysis about the impact of stochastic factors on the development trend of the volume and a more precise forecast. The results show that the model is explicit, feasible, and of high forecasting precision.