基于未确知测度模型的尾矿库溃坝风险评价

针对尾矿库溃坝风险分级预测评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,应用未确知测度理论与尾矿库溃坝风险评价标准并结合工程实际,根据尾矿库溃坝的特点及成因,选取防洪设计标准等16项未确知测度函数评价指标,建立尾矿库溃坝风险分级预测的未确知测度评价模型.根据广东省大宝山矿业有限公司槽对坑尾矿库的实际情况建立各评价因子的未确知测度函数,对其进行定量分析,并利用信息熵计算各评价指标的权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出尾矿库溃坝风险评价分级预测的评价结果.研究结果表明:该方法不仅能给出尾矿库运行期的安全等级,并且能够更客观地反映尾矿库工程运行危险源的情况,为尾矿库溃坝危险性的评价提供了一种新的评价方法.

Optimization model of unascertained measurement for dam-break risk evaluation in tailings dams

According to the various uncertainty problems of tailings reservoir dam-break risk in grade predicting evaluation,the characteristic and cause of tailings reservoir dam-break,the idea to establish the unascertained measure evaluation model was presented for tailings reservoir dam-break risk grade predicting.The model was based on the unascertained measurement theory,dam-break risk assessment of tailings reservoir and engineering practice.In view of the characteristic and the cause of tailings reservoir dam-break,standard of flood control and other 16 unascertained measure function evaluation indexes were selected.Based on the actual situation of Caoduikeng tailings reservoir of Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited company,the unascertained measure function of each evaluation factor was built,the quantitative analysis and the calculation of information entropy in weight of each index was conducted,and the evaluation results of tailings reservoir dam-break risk assessment in grade predicting were obtained.The results show that it can not only propose safety grade of tailings reservoir operation period,but also is more objective on the truth of engineering operation dangerous source of tailings reservoir.It provides a new way for risk evaluation in tailings reservoir dam-break.