基于灰色突变理论的崩塌时间预测方法

由于崩塌的监测数据存在信息不完全和不确知性，同时，崩塌的发生存在有突跳性，采用灰色理论和突变理论能够有效地预测预报边坡崩塌发生的时间，为崩塌防治提供及时的决策依据。首先运用灰色理论对声发射监测数据进行处理，得到预测数据，运用最小二乘曲线拟合展开，再运用微分同胚变换，转换为尖点突变模型的基本形式，建立灰色突变预测预报模型，从而对崩塌的时间进行预报。通过对比用该套方法预报的贵毕公路k79+380～k79+500右边坡的崩塌时间和实际崩塌发生时间，得知该方法是非常有效的。

Failure Time Prediction for Rock Slope Collapse Based on Gray Theory and Catastrophic Theory

Monitoring data of rock slope collapse is a sort of uncertain and incomplete information, Furthermore, it is a discontinuous deformation system, which will branch off or be in critical state with the continuous change of dominant variable parameter, the Gray theory and catastrophic theory are more effective to predict time of collapse occurrence. Firstly, data processing method based on gray theory is used to change acoustic emission information into prediction data. Then prediction data is transformed into essential format of cusp catastrophic model by the least squares principle curve fitting and differential coefficient homeomorphous change. Finally, the gray and catastrophic prediction model is put forward to forecast failure time of rock slope. It is proved that the above method is very effective for forecasting failure time of rock slope collapse, by being applied in k79+380～k79+500 right slope in Gui-bi highway.