基于蒙特卡罗法的高压直流输电系统可靠性评估

针针对直流系统可靠性评估中故障树分析法存在的不足，提出以蒙特卡罗法为基础并结合故障树分析，对直流系统进行可靠性评估的方法。首先根据引起直流系统失效的原因，建立高压直流输电系统的故障树结构，且建树过程中考虑了元件的维修与备用相关性；然后采用改进Monte Carlo仿真技术对该故障树进行模拟分析，实际一直流系统的仿真结果说明了本文所提方法的合理性和有效性。

Reliability Evaluation of HVDC Transmission Systems Based on Monte Carlo Method

A novel method of HVDC reliability evaluation is proposed in this paper to overcome the drawbacks of the conventional fault tree analysis (FTA) method for HVDC reliability evaluation, which is based on the Monte Carlo and FTA methods. The HVDC system fault tree is first established based on the reasons leading to system failure, and the component maintenance and backup dependency are considered. Then, the proposed fault tree is simulated by the improved Monte Carlo simulation technique. The simulation results on a real HVDC transmission system show that the method proposed is feasible and effective. This work is supported by the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NO.50337010).