工程网络中关键路线的确定方法及其比较

传统的关键路线的确定只是考虑平均时间一个指标，没有考虑到完工的概率及方差这两个指标，有时与实际不符。本文提出运用数理统计的区间估计的上限来确定网络图关键路线的方法，并利用多目标决策方法建立一个模型，更切合实际地确定了网络中的关键路线。

THE SELECTION AND COMPARISON OF THE METHODS IN DETERMINING THE CRITICAL PATH IN PERT

In finding the critical path by the traditional method, only the mean time factor is considered while the time for probability and variance is completely neglected. Therefore, wrong answers are given in some cases. In this paper the author presents a new method to define the critical path of the network chart by the upper limit of interval estimation of mathematical statistics. Thus, a new model which is based on the multiple objective decision making, is established. Such an approach tallies with the actual situation and has proved to be more effective in determining the critical path.