| 月电量需求预测的组合时序模型算法 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄阜民,谢乐军,刘研平,黄汉棠.月电量需求预测的组合时序模型算法[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),1997(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄阜民 谢乐军 刘研平 黄汉棠 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南理工大学电力学院 中山电力工业局 |
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| 摘 要： | 电力、电量需求预测，是电力系统计划管理的重要内容和手段之一。用组合时序模型法，预测了某地区未来（１９９５～１９９７年）３６个月的供电量。经１９９５．１～１９９６．４共１６个月实际供电量检验，预测值的相对误差均在合理的范围内。预测结果，为该地区电力系统工程的规划、电网的发展、经济运行等方面，都提供了科学的参考数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 供电量 预测 数学模型 |
THE ALGORITHM OF A COMBINATION MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF THE MONTHLY ELECTRICITY DEMAND |
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| Huang Fumin,Xie Lejun,Liu,Yanping,Huang Hantang.THE ALGORITHM OF A COMBINATION MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF THE MONTHLY ELECTRICITY DEMAND[J].Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition),1997(8). |
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| Authors: | Huang Fumin Xie Lejun Liu Yanping Huang Hantang |
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| Institution: | Huang Fumin Xie Lejun Liu Yanping Huang Hantang * |
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| Abstract: | Predicting electricity demand is one of the technologies and content of management of plan on electric power system. This paper predicts the electricity demand within 36 months from 1995 to 1997 by using a combination time model. Testing the predictions with the real amount of electric energy supply for 15 months, its relative error is kept within a reasonable scope. It thus provides scientific reference data for the planning of the electric power project as well as for the development and economical operation of the electric network. |
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| Keywords: | electrical energy supply forcasting mathematical model |
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