基于空间自相关的县域经济时空集聚过程研究

运用Moran’sI和Getis．OrdGf’指数，以某区县域单元为对象，选取2000-2010年人均GDP及其相对增长量为指标，对研究区经济时空集聚过程进行了分析．结果表明：（1）研究区人均GDP县域经济总体上呈现出较强的空间自相关性，且空间自相关态势在2000--2010年间逐年加强（Moran’SI从0．18增长到0．41），区域形成了北部高经济发展水平集聚区，而南部各县市单元则组成了低经济发展水平集聚区；（2）经济增长的空间格局呈现出较强的不稳定性，但与人均GDP的演化趋势较为一致．通过研究发现Moran’S，和Getis．OrdGf＋指数能够较好透视区域经济发展格局时空演化过程，也肯定了空间自相关方法在区域经济发展规划制定中的潜在价值．

Time-space pattern evolvement of regional economy based on spatial autocorrelationship

Based on the per capita GDP of each city from 2000 to 2010, this paper describes the spatial changes of the economy in the metropolitan region at country level by using the Moran＇s I and Getis-Ord Gi＊. Some conclusions are drawn as follows： （i） Considering the overall spatial economic framework of per capita GDP, the county economy of the study area shows a strong trend of spatial natural correlation with the value of Moran＇s I increased from 0.18 to 0.41,which contributes to the shapping of hotspot cluster in the northen and coldspot cluster in the southern. （2） The development of the spatial econimic growth framework is likely to be more unstable in the aspect of spatial distribution. Meanwhile, hotspot areas tend to be converged in the Northern which is relatively the same as overall spatial economic framework. The reseach also reveal the very use of Moran＇s I and Getis-Ord Gi＊ in exploring regional spatial autocorrelationship and planning of regional economy.