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灰色马尔可夫预测模型在工业SO_2排放量中的应用
引用本文:王艳玲.灰色马尔可夫预测模型在工业SO_2排放量中的应用[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,25(2):74-77.
作者姓名:王艳玲
作者单位:重庆师范大学数学与,计算机科学学院,重庆,400047
摘    要:灰色马尔可夫预测模型是将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链理论相结合建立的预测模型,它不仅充分发挥了灰色预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型的优点,而且因为马尔可夫链理论的引入,有效地解决了灰色预测模型对于随机波动性较大的数列预测精度低问题。首先建立GM(1,1)灰色动态拟合模型,并以此作为工业SO2排放量发展变化的动态基准线模型,在此基础上应用马尔可夫链确定系统状态转移概率矩阵,通过系统状态的划分、样本值与模型拟合值之间的残差等指标的分析计算,最终以概率形式分析和预测工业SO2排放量的发展变化区间。理论分析和实践都表明,该法不但预测结果更可靠,而且能够对工业SO2排放量的发展趋势进行宏观的把握,有利于决策者的决策行为。

关 键 词:灰色系统  灰色马尔可夫模型  SO2

Applying Grey Markov Model to SO2 Emissions from Industry
WANG Yan-ling.Applying Grey Markov Model to SO2 Emissions from Industry[J].Journal of Chongqing Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2008,25(2):74-77.
Authors:WANG Yan-ling
Abstract:Grey Markov model is a forecast model based on the grey system theory and Markov chain theory.It not only makes good use of the advantages of grey forecast model and Markov model,but also solves efficiently the problem of low precision of number list forecast.What's more,according to the forecast about the sulfur dioxide emissions,the grey Markov forecast model can satisfy the requirement in forecast precision.In this article,a Grey Markov Model for forecasting sulfur dioxide emissions is presented by means of combining Grey system theory with dispersed Markov Chains theory.For the first time,grey model and Markov chain are integrated to forecast sulfur dioxide emissions.Firstly a GM(1,1) is built to get the dynamic base line for sulfur dioxide emissions.Secondly on the basis of the GM(1,1),Markov chain is applied to achieve state transition probability matrix.Thirdly sulfur dioxide emissions interval is forecasted and analyzed in the form of probability by the system state classification,the calculation of the residue between true value and model fitting value and the standardization of deviation of the residue.It's proved in theory and practice that the forecast results not only are more reliable but also can help the decisionmaker with grasping the sulfur dioxide emissions development tendency in general and making proper decision.Results show that the Grey Markov Model has higher accuracy than that of GM(1,1) model.
Keywords:Grey system  Grey Markov model  sulfur dioxide
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