基于交叉口处机动车交通行为概率的延误模型

通过分析信号控制交叉口处机动车的交通行为，利用交叉口的信号周期、有效绿灯时间，求得各种交通行为的概率和平均延误时间，提出一种基于分析各种交通行为概率的交通延误的模型。以石家庄市中山东路与建设南大街交叉口为例，采用Beckham模型对其进行交通流延误的计算。经过对结果的对比，误差为2%，在规定的误差范围内，说明基于分析交通行为概率的延误模型可以为计算交叉口处车辆的平均延误提供一种估计方法，并且求得的平均延误也可以作为评价交叉口服务水平的指标之一。

An intersection motor vehicle traffic behavior probability based delay model

We derive the probability and average delay time of each traffic behavior with the analysis of traffic behavior at single-controlled intersection, signal cycle and effective green light time. We also present a traffic delay model analyzing the probability of all traffic behavior. We employ Beckham Model to calculate traffic flow delay, taking the intersection at East Zhongshan Road and South Jianshe Street as an example. The error is two percent, less than the error range, by the comparisons of results. It demonstrates that traffic behavior probability based delay model can provide an estimation approach for the calculation of intersection average vehicle delay. The acquired average traffic delay can also be served as an index to assess the intersection service level.