基于贝叶斯网络的地铁项目施工风险管理研究

收集近年来我国施工安全风险事故发生的数据并进行整理,通过专家调查法确定出大连市地铁一期工程西安路站中存在的主要风险因素;根据各风险因素之间的因果关系,确定出相应的贝叶斯网络模型;该项目施工风险发生概率可以运用以贝叶斯网络为基础的正向因果推理技术进行预测,运用反向推理技术进行施工风险诊断.结果表明:该地铁项目施工安全风险发生概率为0.530,该数据表明地铁项目施工安全整体风险水平为中等等级.确定使大连市地铁一期工程处于危险状态的关键因素为:施工测量数据不准确、施工组织或施工方案不详细及操作过程连接不合理.

Research on Construction Risk Management of Subway Project Based on Bayesian Network

The data on construction safety risk accidents in China in recent years are collected and sorted out.The main risk factors in Xi'anlu station of the Dalian subway phase Ⅰ project are determined by the expert investigation method.According to the causal relationship among risk factors,the corresponding Bayesian network model is determined.The construction risk occurrence probability of this project can be predicted by using forward causal inference technology based on the Bayesian network,and construction risk can be diagnosed by using reverse inference technology.The results show that the risk probability of the construction safety of this subway project is 0.530.The data shows that the overall risk level of construction safety of this subway project is medium.The key factors that make the Xi'anlu station of the Dalian subway phase Ⅰ project in a dangerous state are inaccurate construction measurement data,non-detailed construction organization or construction scheme,and unreasonable connection of the operation process.