基于小样本的非等距加速应力试验寿命预测方法

对非等距灰色GM(1,1)模型作进一步的改进,给出了一种新的非等距GM(1,1)模型.该模型与传统的非等距模型生成方式不同,在数据生成处理时,不是直接利用原始数据进行建模预测,而是通过对原始数据取对数变换,作降幅平滑处理,然后再对背景值加权处理.背景值加权的权重不是传统的绝对距离,而是相对距离,可以有效地避免改变原始数据列的性质.实例表明,对于非等距加速应力试验寿命预测,改进后的模型与Arrhenius模型及传统的非等距GM(1,1)模型相比,具有更好的建模精度和较强的适应性.

Life Prediction Method for Non-equidistant Accelerated Stress Test Based on Small Sample

By developing the traditional gray non-equidistance GM( 1,1) model,a new non-equidistance GM( 1,1) model was proposed. In the data generation processing,the original data for modeling and forecasting was not directly used,but smooth processing was done by taking the logarithm transformation of the original data,and then the background value was weighed. The weight of the background weight was the relative distance,which was not the traditional absolute distance. This method can effectively avoid changing the nature of the original data. The example showed that the new model has better modeling accuracy and stronger adaptability than the Arrhenius model and the traditional gray non-equidistance GM( 1,1) model for non-equidistance accelerated stress test life prediction.