渤海海域油污溯源模拟预测研究

【目的】发展有效、准确的溢油溯源预测技术,为渤海海域溢油污染防治以及责任认定提供参考。【方法】建立基于"拉格朗日"粒子追踪方法的油粒子数值溯源预测模型,利用集合预报方法,结合渤海海域气象、海洋环境驱动场,针对秦皇岛岸段发现的油污,通过溯源模型进行模拟,预测其可能来源,分析油污可能发生的原因。【结果】受海面风和海流的综合作用,冬季在秦皇岛北部海域的油污,多会在春季漂移至秦皇岛海域。【结论】本研究模拟预测方法针对不同的海域进行预测分析,可给出油污的可能来源,为溢油源的排查和应急处置提供技术支持。

Study on Tracing Model of the Oil Spill Sources in Bohai Sea

Objective]Developing the effective and accurate tracing prediction technology of oil spill is prevented the pollution and provided the reference to responsibility of oil spill in Bohai Sea.Methods]This paper studied on the tracing model of oil particle which was fundamental by the theory of“Lagrange”method.This research was used the prediction results from op-erational meteorological numerical model (Weather reseach and forecast,WRF)and ocean numerical model (Regional ocean model syslem,ROMS)to drive field for the marine environ-ment.The numeric simulation of the oil tracing model was used to predict the probability source of oil spill in Qinhuangdao.We analyzed the reasons of the marine dynamic to explain the oil spill drift.Results]Due to the effect of surface wind and ocean current,the oil spill in the north sea of Qinhuangdao duirng winter will be drifted to the off-shore of Qinhuangdao in spring of next year.Conclusion]The simulated forecasting methods are studied to analyze the different area of the sea,which can identify probability source of oil spill.It can provide the support for checking the source of oil spill and emergency response.