| 并网光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 李光明,廖华,李景天,赵恒利,黄波,何京鸿.并网光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的探讨[J].云南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,31(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李光明 廖华 李景天 赵恒利 黄波 何京鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南师范大学太阳能研究所;教育部可再生能源材料先进技术与制备重点实验室;云南昆明650092 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了较为准确的对并网光伏发电系统的发电量做出预测,提高光伏并网后电网的稳定性及安全性。文章对硅太阳电池组件发电功率进行了理论计算,建立了多元线性回归光伏发电功率及发电量预测模型。通过改进水电、火电和风电现有的发电量预测模型(基于BP神经网络和G(1,1)灰色理论模型),使得改进后模型更适合于并网光伏发电系统发电量的预测。最后,对三种预测模型的优缺点进行了比较,为今后并网光伏发电的预测提供了一种较为准确可行的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 并网光伏系统 非平衡性 随机性 预测模型 可行性 |
Discussion on theMethod of Grid-connected PV power system Generation Forecasting |
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| LI Guang-ming,LIAO Hua,LI Jing-tian,ZhAO Hen-li,HUANG Bo,HE Jing-hong.Discussion on theMethod of Grid-connected PV power system Generation Forecasting[J].Journal of Yunnan Normal University (Natural Sciences Edition),2011,31(2). |
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| Authors: | LI Guang-ming LIAO Hua LI Jing-tian ZhAO Hen-li HUANG Bo HE Jing-hong |
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| Institution: | LI Guang-ming,LIAO Hua,LI Jing-tian,ZhAO Hen-li,HUANG Bo,HE Jing-hong(Institute of Solar Energy,Yunnan Normal University,Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technology,Ministry of Education,Kunming,650092) |
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| Abstract: | To accurately forecast the generation of grid-connected PV power system and improve security and stability of grid-connected PV system,this paper has made calculations on power output of a single component of silicon solar cell,and made a generation forecasting model of grid-connected PV power system basing on Multiple Linear Regression.The BP neural network and G(1,1)Grey Theory model that had be used to predict the generation in hydropower,thermal power and windpower was modified and be used to forecast t... |
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| Keywords: | Grid-connected PV system Non-equilibrium Randomicity Forecasting model Feasibility |
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