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论人口下降区农村城镇化发展的困境与趋势——以浙江省为例
引用本文:彭伟斌,陈晓慧.论人口下降区农村城镇化发展的困境与趋势——以浙江省为例[J].杭州师范学院学报(社会科学版),2013(6):111-119.
作者姓名:彭伟斌  陈晓慧
作者单位:[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,上海200020 [2]杭州师范大学人口研究所,浙江杭州311121
基金项目:基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“‘十二五’时期生育政策决策选择研究”(11BRK011)、教育部人文社会科学青年项目“人口持续低增长影响下我国人口政策目标及策略研究”(11YJC840040)、浙江省教育厅科研项目“浙江省小城镇人口集聚趋势与发展对策研究”(Y201121789)的研究成果.
摘    要:比较“五普”和“六普”结果可见,我国有6个省、107个地级市(区)、1022个县(区/市/旗)的常住人口出现了负增长,更多的县市正在加速步人人口下降区队列。人口持续下降对这些区域的社会经济发展造成严重冲击。以浙江19个人口下降县(市)为例,人口下降区农村城镇化发展正面临三大困境,并有三大演进趋势。为此,政府在推进中心镇和中心村建设时,应遵循人口发展规律有效提升人口集聚能力,调动市场化因素推进农村城镇化发展,采用非均衡路径促进城镇体系空间布局优化,实施重构农村社区的多层面政策革新。

关 键 词:人口下降区  农村城镇化  困境  趋势

On Dilemmas and Trends of the Rural Urbanization Development in Negative Population Growth Region--A Case Study of Zhejiang Province
PENG Wei-bin,CHEN Xiao-hui.On Dilemmas and Trends of the Rural Urbanization Development in Negative Population Growth Region--A Case Study of Zhejiang Province[J].Journal of Hangzhou Teachers College(Humanities and Social Sciences),2013(6):111-119.
Authors:PENG Wei-bin  CHEN Xiao-hui
Institution:1. Institute of Economic Research, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai 200020, China 2. Population Research Institute, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)
Abstract:On the comparison between the fifth and the sixth "National Census", it can be shown that in China, the permanent resident population in 6 provinces, as well as 107 cities (districts) and 1022 counties (or county-leveled city) has fallen into a negative growth. This is quite the case for many other counties. In this paper, a case study on 19 counties in Zhejiang Province with their population declining is to be made. In addition, dilemmas and trends, which befall upon the development of the rural urbanization in the negative population growth region, are to be analyzed. As a result, the government is supposed to follow the principles when promoting the construction of central towns and villages, including : to effectively enhance the ability of concen- trating the population of small towns in accordance with the population development law; to promote the rural urbanization de- velopment by mobilizing the market factors ; to optimize the spatial layout of urban system with a non-balance path and to recon- struct rural communities by the way of multidimensional oolicv innovations.
Keywords:Negative population growth region  rural urbanization  dilemma  trend
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