西安局部地区地裂差异沉降量灰色模型分析

文章以西安市为例 ,根据西安市地质技工学校地裂差异沉降动态特征 ,利用承压水位动态资料及地裂差异沉降资料建立了灰色模型 ,对承压水位下降及地裂差异沉降进行预测。首先采用费尔哈斯特 (Verhulst)生物繁殖模型 ,以过去几十年的地裂差异沉降速率的监测资料为背景予以灰色系统理论处理和进行沉降旋回期或寿命预测 ,进而根据预测的地裂差异沉降速率算出未来 5 0 a的累计地裂差异沉降量。其次采用灰色模型预测西安市地质技工学校承压水位变化 ,进而根据用线性回归方程所得的承压水位变化与地裂差异沉降的关系方程 ,预测其今后 5 0 a的地裂差异沉降量

Analyzing the Taphrogenic Differential Settlement of the Some Areas of Xi'an City with Grey Verhulst Model

The process of taphrogenic differential settlementcan is regarded as a complicated hazard phenomena,and it may be merged into a limited system with finite life span.As a typical example the taphrogenic differential settlement fissure of the geological skilled works'school of Xi'an City was cited.According to the dynamic character of the taphrogenic differential settlement of the school,Verhulst model was established to forecast the drop of taphrogenic differential settlement and artesian pressure head with reeorded data.Firstly,based on dynamic characteristics of taphrogenic differential settlement in the school,by means of Verhulst biological reproduction model,we processes the recorded data with the help of grey system theory and forecasts life circle or life span of settlement.The grand total quantity of the taphrogenic differential settlement about later 50 years was calculated according to the forecastion data of them.Secondly by Verhulst model the variations of the school and the grand total quantity of taphrogenic differential settlement about later 50 years was forecasted according to the relationship between taphrogenic differential settlement and variations of artesian pressure head caculated by liner regression equation.