PHM项目研制的进度风险与技术成熟度要求

统计分析各国目前已完成的预测与健康管理(Prognostic and health management，PHM)项目相关资料,得到技术成熟度等级与相对进度拖延的原始数据。通过转化为线性回归的方法,建立技术成熟度等级与平均相对进度拖延和最大相对进度拖延的回归函数,并检验回归函数线性假设的显著性。假设相对进度拖延服从正态分布,确定进度风险与技术成熟度的概率关系。绘制进度风险、进度余量与技术成熟度等级的关系图。结果表明:PHM的技术成熟度达到7级时,项目研制的进度风险控制在20％以内,处于可以接受的范围。

The Technology Readiness Level Requirement on Prognostics and Health Management Development of Equipment

By statistically analyzing the information of PHM items which have been already accomplished in various countries, the original data of the technology readiness level and comparative schedule delay are gained. By the method of translation into linear regression, the regress functions of technology readiness level with average comparative schedule delay, and technology readiness level with maximal comparative schedule delay are established. On the assumption that the comparative schedule delay is obedient to normal distribution, the probability relationship of schedule risk with technology readiness level is established. Then, the relational graph of schedule risk and schedule allowance with technology readiness level is drawn. The research shows that when PHM technology readiness level achieves seventh grade, the schedule risk is within twenty percent, which is of an acceptable range.