一种基于CPFR的订单预测方法研究

协同规划、预测与补货(Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment,CPFR)强调零售商与供货商共同合作建立一个供应链的预测方式,其中协同预测阶段又分为订单预测与销售预测.以订单预测阶段为研究对象,归纳出协同合作下订单需求的影响因素作为模型的解释变量,然后结合传统时间序列与多元回归分析,建立了基于CPFR的订单预测模型.最后将该预测模型应用于国内某公司的订单资料.验证结果表明所提出的订单预测方法比传统使用单一时间序列方法的预测结果精度更高.

Research on Order Forecasting Method Based on CPFR

Supplier collaborates with tradesman to construct a supply chain forecasting style is an important idea in the collaborative planning,forecastiong and replenishment(CPFR).Collaborative prediction stage includes order forecasting and sales forecasting.This paper concludes the influencing factors of collaborative order demand,and takes them as model explanatory variables.Then,the order forecasting model is constructed via integrating time series analysis method and multiple regression analysis.The forecasting result of actual order data demonstrates the order forecasting method presented is superior to the traditional forecasting technique.