灰色预测模型在机械设备运行状态趋势分析中的应用

灰色理论以其新颖的思路及广泛的适用性,在理论及工程领域日益引起人们的高度重视,并迅速被成功地应用于诸如社会、经济及工程等许多领域。灰色理论中,灰色预测是其重要的组成部分之一。由于其方法上的特点,灰色预测模型有可能成为机械设备状态监测、故障诊断及趋势分析中的一种新的有效工具。本文首先简单介绍了灰色预测模型的有关概念;其次给出了建模的一般过程及模型应用于趋势分析的基本原理;进而总结了用灰色预测模型进行趋势分析的一般特点及大致步骤;最后,提供了两个应用实例,结果表明,分析结论与实际情况基本吻合。

The Application of AGO-GM (Accumulated Generating Operation Grey Model) to Machinery Condition Trend Analysis

The Grey System Theory gets much attention in the fields of theory and engineering with its new and original thought and wide adaptability, and is applied quickly in many fields successfully, such as society, economy and engineering, In that theory, the AGO-GM is its important content. Because of the character of its method, the AGO-GM may be an effective means in the field of machinery condition monitoring and fault diagnosis and trend analysis. First, the concept of AGO-GM is briefly introduced. Then the building process of GM and the steps of trend analysis by the method of AGO-GM are given. Third, the principle of the application of AGO-GM to machinery condition monitoring and trend analysis is discussed. Finally, two cases of its application are provided. Their results are fairly satisfactory.