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| 矿业工程项目施工工期可靠性预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 史玉芳,解燕平,陆路.矿业工程项目施工工期可靠性预测研究[J].西安科技大学学报,2011,31(5). |
| 作者姓名： | 史玉芳 解燕平 陆路 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安,710054 2. 长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安,710061 3. 西安科技大学建筑与土木工程学院,陕西西安,710054 |
| 基金项目： | 陕西省教育厅人文社科专项科研资助项目(11JK0170) |
| 摘 要： | 工期是矿业工程项目管理的三大目标之一,本文引入施工工期可靠性这一指标衡量矿业工程项目工期管理水平.基于蒙特卡洛模拟法与计划评审技术相结合提出了工程项目施工工期可靠性的预测模型.与传统计划评审技术方法相比,用蒙特卡洛模拟法求解的优点在于通过模拟构造多个方案,弥补了传统计划评审技术的假设条件造成的误差,提高了计算精度,更加符合实际工程的情况;最后以一工程实例进行了应用. |
| 关 键 词： | 矿业工程项目 施工工期可靠性 蒙特卡洛模拟 计划评审技术 |
Construction time reliability forecasting of mining project |
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| SHI Yu-fang,XIE Yan-ping,LU Lu.Construction time reliability forecasting of mining project[J].JOurnal of XI’an University of Science and Technology,2011,31(5). | |
| Authors: | SHI Yu-fang XIE Yan-ping LU Lu |
| Institution: | SHI Yu-fang1,XIE Yan-ping2,LU Lu3(1.College of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China,2.School of Economy and Management,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710061,3.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,China) |
| Abstract: | Time is one of the three objectives for mining project,and construction time reliability as a appraisal index for time is introduced to measure time management level of mining project.Based on the method combined of Monte Carlo simulation and PERT,the forecasting model of construction time reliability is built.Compared with traditional PERT,the advantage of Monte Carlo simulation is to compensate the error caused by assumptions of PERT and to improve calculation accuracy.Finally,a case is chosen as the appl... |
| Keywords: | mining project construction time reliability Monte Carlo simulation PERT |
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