灰色马尔可夫模型在航空事故征候预测中的应用

航空事故征候是航空安全管理的核心内容之一,对其进行科学的预测是预防事故发生的关键。鉴于航空事故征候受多种因素的影响及具有较大随机波动性的特点,结合灰色预测和马尔可夫预测的优点,建立了航空事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型,并应用该模型对我国航空事故征候进行了具体的预测。结果表明,建立的航空事故征候灰色马尔可夫预测模型是可行的,可以作为我国航空事故征候预测的有效工具。

Application of gray Markov model in aviation incident prediction

Aviation incident is the core content of aviation safety management.Forecasting aviation incident is important to prevent accidents.In consideration of various factors and random fluctuation of aviation incident,the paper constructs the Gray Markov prediction model of aviation incident based on the advantages of the gray and Markov forecasting.We predict aviation incident of China by the model.The result shows that it is practicable to construct the model of aviation incident and we can take the model as an effective tool to predict Chinese aviation incident.