| 行业发展行为的系统动力学模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 龚国华,田圣海.行业发展行为的系统动力学模型[J].复旦学报(自然科学版),2001,40(2):147-152. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龚国华 田圣海 |
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| 作者单位： | 复旦大学管理学院, |
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| 摘 要： | 预测行业的未来发展趋势具有很重要的现实意义，但由于市场是一个高阶多变量非线性的复杂系统，很难用传统的数学和统计工具进行分析，而系统动力学由于其本身的特点，恰好适合解决此类问题，由此，以彩电行业为例，阐述了用系统动力学建立市场模型的过程和方法，并分析了有关政策对行业发展行为的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 行业发展模型 市场需求 市场供给 家电行业 行业发展行为 |
| 文章编号： | 0427-7104(2001)02-0147-06 |
System Dynamics Model of Trade Development |
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| GONG Guo-hua,TIAN Sheng-hai.System Dynamics Model of Trade Development[J].Journal of Fudan University(Natural Science),2001,40(2):147-152. |
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| Authors: | GONG Guo-hua TIAN Sheng-hai |
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| Abstract: | It is of great practical significance to forecast future trade development. However, traditional mathematical or statistical tools are seldom successfully utilized to analyze it in that the market is a non linear sophisticated system with complex factors and multi variables. Fortunately, system dynamics is suited to solve such problems because of its characteristics. After elucidating the procedure and method of establishing the market model, this article analyzes the influence of related policies to the trade development with the example of electronic home equipment market. |
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| Keywords: | system dynamics trade development market requirement market supply |
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