| 广州市SARS流行的数学建模与干预措施的定量评估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 曹志冬,王劲峰,韩卫国,高一鸽,曾光.广州市SARS流行的数学建模与干预措施的定量评估[J].复旦学报(自然科学版),2009(6). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 曹志冬 王劲峰 韩卫国 高一鸽 曾光 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室;中国科学院自动化研究所;Center for Spatial Information Science and System;George Mason University;中国疾病预防控制中心; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40901219,40471111,70571076); 国家高技术研究发展计划(863)资助项目(2006AA12Z215); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2001CB5103) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 构建了反映SARS传播过程的动力学模型,利用模拟退火算法对2003年广州市的SARS疫情进行了研究,得到了重要流行病学参数——潜伏期、感染期、基本再生数与有效再生数的最优估计,结果表明:广州市SARS传播的平均潜伏期为4d,平均感染期为7.7d,基本再生数为3.8,疫情得到控制后的有效再生数为0.6,感染期的变化对广州市SARS疫情的变化趋势有重要影响.最后,采用情景模拟方法,定量评估了4类干预措施——疫苗接种率、应急反应时间、三早措施与综合防控对广州市SARS疫情的影响.
|
| 关 键 词： | 严重急性呼吸系统综合症 传播动力学模型 流行病学特征 干预措施 评估 |
Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease and Quantitative Assessments of Control Measures:a Case Study of SARS Epidemic in Guangzhou,2003 |
| |
| CAO Zhi-dong,WANG Jin-feng,HAN Wei-guo,GAO Yi-ge,ZENG Guang.Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease and Quantitative Assessments of Control Measures:a Case Study of SARS Epidemic in Guangzhou,2003[J].Journal of Fudan University(Natural Science),2009(6). |
| |
| Authors: | CAO Zhi-dong WANG Jin-feng HAN Wei-guo GAO Yi-ge ZENG Guang |
| |
| Institution: | CAO Zhi-dong1,2,WANG Jin-feng1,HAN Wei-guo3,GAO Yi-ge1,ZENG Guang4(1.State Key Laboratory of Resources & Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China,2.Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligence Science,Institute of Automation,Beijing 100190,3.Center for Spatial Information Science and System,George Mason University,Maryland 20770,USA,4.Chinese Center for Disease Con... |
| |
| Abstract: | A transmission dynamic model to study SARS epidemic in Guangzhou,2003 concerning 1277 SARS-infected cases is established.Using simulated annealing algorithm,optimal estimations of model-based epidemiological parameters such as average latency period(4 days),average infectious period(7.7 days),basic reproduction number (3.8) and effective reproduction number(0.6),are obtained.Experimental result shows that change in infectious period has impact on the SARS transmission during SARS epidemic in Guangzhou.Final... |
| |
| Keywords: | severe acute respiratory syndrome mathematical modeling epidemiological feature control measure assessment |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
