| 操作风险的定量分析及其在远洋运输中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 余建星,苏春华.操作风险的定量分析及其在远洋运输中的应用[J].复旦学报(自然科学版),2006,45(5):670-673. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余建星 苏春华 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学,建筑工程学院,天津,300072 |
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| 摘 要： | 风险事故中,误操作导致的风险占风险事件总数的比例很大.对操作风险(OperationRisk,OR)进行了定量分析,并将其应用到船舶远洋运输中.利用风险辨识的方法找出潜在的风险因素,然后运用定量风险评估技术对操作风险事件进行定量计算,并对风险事件按照风险值大小进行排序,给出控制措施.船舶远洋运输进行操作风险定量分析可以降低风险发生概率,减小事故损失.
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| 关 键 词： | 操作风险 定量风险评估 风险概率 风险值 |
| 文章编号： | 0427-7104（2006）05-0670-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-02 |
Quantitative Analysis on Operation Risk and Its Application to Ocean Shipping |
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| YU Jian-xing,SU Chun-hua.Quantitative Analysis on Operation Risk and Its Application to Ocean Shipping[J].Journal of Fudan University(Natural Science),2006,45(5):670-673. |
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| Authors: | YU Jian-xing SU Chun-hua |
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| Institution: | School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | A large number of risk events are caused by misuse failure.In order to analyze this problem,a quantitative analysis method is put forward for operation risk management.And,it is applied to risk analysis on ocean shipping.The potential risk factors are found by the way of risk identification; the risk values of risk events are evaluated by making use of the quantitative risk assessment method;all operation risk events are arranged in order according to the risk values,and some control measures are given.The application of quantitative risk assessment to ocean shipping can make risk probability diminish and can reduce the loss. |
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| Keywords: | operation risk quantitative risk assessment risk probability risk value |
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