地质建模中基于响应面代理的不确定性研究

针对应用随机地质建模技术进行不确定性分析中的难点问题，提出了使用响应面代理模型进行不确定分析的
方法及其研究流程；分析了此方法应用过程中的关键点，即根据地质特征，充分考虑各建模环节的不确定性，开展敏感
性参数分析，应用响应面方法建立代理模型，生成训练/验证模型及应用代理模型进行结果预测时采样算法的要求。基
于代理模型的预测结果，可方便地得到定量评价参数相对真实的概率分布。在此基础之上，筛选对应于某一概率下的
随机地质模型，有助于进一步定量评价油田开发风险与潜力，为开发方案的编制及优化服务。

Uncertainty Analysis with the Response-surface Proxy for Stochastic Geological Models

To solve the difficulty problems，which the stochastic geological model is uncertain，the paper presented the
response-surface proxy model to carried out the uncertainties method and its research process. The uncertainties with the
geomodel can’t be easily and correctly disclosed with respect to the process of the stochastically modeling that is limited by
computer’s capacity and time consumption. In the whole process，some following crucial things should be considered seriously.
All uncertainties with the geomodeling should be fully taken into account in compliance with the geological characteristics
of reservoirs. Sensitivity analysis would be carried out prior to the generating of proxy model. The sampling algorithms for
generating both the training and the validation models could be different from the predicating of the target through proxy model.
The probabilistic distribution of the target variables（oil in place as an example）can be understood through proxy model to a
great extent. Therefore，these stochastic geomodels can be picked out with respect to the probabilities in terms of the target. In
this sense，risks and potentials for the development of a reservoir can be appraised further based on the uncertainty studies.