渤海油田疏松砂岩储层动态出砂预测

出砂风险的准确预测是有效预防出砂的关键技术之一。目前渤海油田采用的出砂预测方法多为静态法，未考虑油田生产过程中地应力、含水饱和度、地层压力亏空和生产压差等因素变化对地层出砂的动态影响，预测结果与实际情况存在偏差，对防砂方式的设计指导偏笼统。基于储层动态出砂影响因素及机理分析，以目前渤海油田常用的定向射孔井和水平裸眼井两种完井方式为研究对象，结合井壁力学稳定性分析，建立了渤海油田疏松砂岩储层全生命周期动态出砂预测方法。该方法可充分考虑地应力、含水率、生产压差、压力亏空等关键因素对储层出砂的动态影响，实现储层开采全生命周期出砂风险动态预测和分析。应用表明，该预测方法更为精细、准确，更贴合疏松砂岩储层出砂实际情况，有助于进一步优化防砂方式，达到降本增效的目的。

Prediction of Dynamic Sanding in Unconsolidated Sandstone Reservoirs of Bohai Oilfield

The accurate prediction of the risk of sanding is a key technological measure for sanding prevention. The Bohai Oilfield currently utilizes static methods for sanding prediction, which do not account for changes in ground stress, water saturation, reservoir pressure depletion, and pressure drawdown during oil production processes, and these have dynamic effects on reservoir sanding. This results in significant difference between the sanding predictions of the methods used and reality, and these predictions only provide general guidance for sanding prevention design. In this work, we investigated commonly used well completion methods in the Bohai Oilfield, namely oriented perforating and horizontal open hole wells, and constructed a method for predicting dynamic sanding throughout the lifecycle of an unconsolidated sandstone reservoir in the Bohai Oilfield based on analyses of the factors and mechanisms governing dynamic sanding and mechanical stabilities of wellbores. Our method provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic effects of ground stress, water content, pressure drawdown, and pressure depletion on reservoir sanding, thus enabling dynamic predictions and analyses of sanding risks throughout the petroleum extraction lifecycle of a reservoir. In practice, it was shown that our proposed method predicted the sanding of unconsolidated sandstone reservoirs in a more precise, accurate, and realistic manner than existing methods. The findings of this study will therefore contribute to optimization of sanding prevention measures, thus reducing costs and improving productivity.