The probability of concrete structure cracking at early age is estimated by cracking probability and critical cracking risk with probabilistic method for a real case of concrete wall. The analysis model of cracking (?)= r - s is based on the theory of reliability of structures. The sensitivity coefficients calculated by this model can express the influencing efficiency of the temperature change in structure and shrinkage on the cracking of concrete structure in early age. The calculation results show that cracking probability and critical cracking risk can be applied to analysis and forecast of concrete wall cracking. Prediction of concrete structure cracking at early age provides basis for concrete proportion optimization and reduces the concrete structure cracking through the forecast and analysis of concrete structure.