安徽省近50年降水时空变化分析

利用安徽省17个气象站1957-2012年逐日逐月降水资料,选用克里金插值法、MannKendall突变检验和小波分析、重标极差法等方法,探究安徽省年季降雨特征及时空变化.结果表明:(1)在时间上,近56年来,安徽省全年降水量总体呈现增加趋势,降水的年代际变化特征较为明显;(2)在空间上,全省降水总体呈现由东南向西北递减的趋势,区域差异明显;(3)安徽省季节平均降雨的突变检验发现,春季降雨没有发生突变,夏季降雨变化在1975年到1990年的区间内存在多个突变点,秋季平均降雨于1990年前后发生少雨突变,冬季平均降水突变以1996年最为明显,2010年达到显著性水平;(4)从小波变换系数实部等值线图和小波方差分析法可得13a和28a是安徽省年平均降水的主周期;(5)全省各站点年均Hurst值均大于0.5,具有长期相关性,但各站点差异较大,各地区降水增加趋势不均衡,多数站点夏季Hurst值在长时间尺度上具有较强的相关性特征.

Analysis of Temporal-Spatial Change in Anhui Province in Recent 50 Years

Based on the daily and monthly rainfall data of 1957 - 2012 from 17 weather station in Anhui province,applying Kriging interpolation,Mann-Kendall method and wavelet analysis and Rescaled Range,this article explored the seasonal rainfall characteristics and spatio -temporal changes in Anhui province.The results indicated that :(1) In the past 56 years,annual rainfall in Anhui Province has shown an increasing trend,and the interdecadal characteristics of precipitation have been more obvious. (2) In space,rainfall in the whole province shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest,and the regional differences are obvious.(3) The M-K method on seasonal average rainfall in anhui province found that there was no mutation in spring rain, there were multiple mutations points in summer rainfall between between 1975 and 1990 years,average rainfall in the autumn had been mutated by less rain in the 1990,and average precipitation in winter was the most obvious in 1996,reaching a significant level in 2010.(4) The wavelet analysis showed that 13a and 28a were the main periods of annual average precipitation in Anhui Province.(5) The average annual Hurst values of all stations in the province were greater than 0.5,with long-term correlations,but the differences between stations were quite large.The trend of precipitation increase in all stations was not balanced.The summer Hurst values of most stations had strong correlations on long time scales.