基于 LEAP 的北京城市客运体系CO2减排潜力评估

以北京为例,采用情景分析与LEAP模型相结合方法,估算了各项低碳交通发展政策的减排贡献及不同政策组合情景下城市客运体系的CO2减排潜力.结果表明,2015年基准、减排和强化减排情景的城市客运体系CO2排放量分别为2 693.6万、2 491.0万和2 309.5万t;2020年分别为3 222.7万、2 852.0万和2 531.8万t.在现行各项低碳交通政策措施中,近期机动车尾号限行和小客车限购的CO2减排潜力最大,其次为轨道交通建设、公共自行车租赁、高速公路不停车收费系统建设和新能源小客车推广等;远期小客车限购的减排贡献显著高于其他政策措施,其次为高速公路不停车收费系统建设、机动车尾号限行和轨道交通建设.机动车单双号限行、更严格的小客车限购、轨道交通线路扩容、私家车节能改造和公共汽电车车型换代同样蕴含着巨大的减排潜力.

Evaluating reduction potential of CO2 emission from urban passenger transport system in Beijing by LEAP model

Potential for reduction in CO 2 emission from urban passenger transport system in Beijing was calculated by Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model (LEAP)from 2010-2020.Modeling revealed that CO 2 emissions were significantly influenced by mode of low-carbon policy.In 2015,CO 2 emissions were 2.69× 10 7 ,2.49 × 10 7 and 2.31 × 10 7 t in baseline,mitigation and intensive mitigation scenarios,respectively.In 2020,CO 2 emissions will increase to 3.22 × 10 7 ,2.85 × 10 7 and 2.53 × 10 7 t in the above three scenarios, respectively.CO 2 reduction potential of each low-carbon policy was also calculated by LEAP.From 2010-2015, vehicle restriction contributed the largest part of reduction in CO 2 emission,followed by quantity control of small passenger vehicles.From 2010-2020,the greatest potential would be quantity control of small passenger vehicles,which was much larger than other low-carbon policies.Potentials of electronic toll collection,vehicle restriction rule and rall transit development were in the second rank.In addition,CO 2 emission from urban passenger transit system could be further decreased with more stringent low-carbon policies,such as odd-even number vehicle ban,stricter quantity control of small passenger vehicles,capacity expansion of rall transit and energy-saving modification of car and buses.