| 基于极值理论的中国台风降水分布不确定性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 石先武,方伟华,林伟,李颖.基于极值理论的中国台风降水分布不确定性分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011(5):493-501. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石先武 方伟华 林伟 李颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学);民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学资源学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAK49B04,2008BAK50B07) |
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| 摘 要： | 以浙江温州站点为例,对5种极值模型模拟台风降水极值累积概率分布的方法进行了详细阐述,并分析不同极值模型的差异;对全国748个气象观测站点的1951—2005年所有台风事件的降水及概率进行了系统分析,结果表明Weibull分布模拟中国台风极值降水整体检验效果最佳;定量探讨了Weibull分布与其他分布模型在台风降水强度-概率分布上的定量差异及采用不同分布模型可能造成的台风降水概率分布不确定性.
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| 关 键 词： | 台风降水 概率分布 极值理论 不确定性 中国 |
UNCERTAINTY OF CHINA TYPHOON RAINFALL PROBABILITY ESTIMATION WITH DIFFERENT EXTREME-VALUE MODELS |
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| SHI Xianwu, FANG Weihua, LIN Wei LI Ying,State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes , Resources Ecology,Beijing,China, Academy of Disaster Reduction , Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change , Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education, College of Resources Science & Technology,B....UNCERTAINTY OF CHINA TYPHOON RAINFALL PROBABILITY ESTIMATION WITH DIFFERENT EXTREME-VALUE MODELS[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2011(5):493-501. |
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| Authors: | SHI Xianwu FANG Weihua LIN Wei LI Ying State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes Resources Ecology Beijing China Academy of Disaster Reduction Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Key Laboratory of Environmental Change Natural Disaster Ministry of Education College of Resources Science & Technology B |
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| Institution: | SHI Xianwu1,2) FANG Weihua1,2,3) LIN Wei4) LI Ying1,2)(1)State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology(Beijing Normal University),100875,Beijing,China,2) Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,3) Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,4) College of Resources Science & Technology,B... |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | typhoon rainfall probability distribution extreme value theory uncertainty China |
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