基于元胞自动机的黄河三角洲互花米草种群扩散动态模拟

以黄河三角洲为研究区，重点考虑互花米草无性扩散过程，基于元胞自动机构建互花米草种群扩散模型．模型模拟了2014—2018年互花米草在黄河三角洲的动态入侵扩散过程，并与遥感解译结果进行对比，对模型进行了率定和验证．进一步对2020年互花米草分布范围进行预测，结果显示互花米草将进一步扩张定植于黄河现行入海口南北两岸的低潮滩区域，分布面积将达到4 118.15 hm2．模型设置了本地植物与互花米草的不同共存情景，模拟结果表明本地植物对互花米草种群扩散影响较小．本模型能较好地重现互花米草在黄河三角洲的入侵扩散过程，可以用来初步预测互花米草在黄河三角洲的扩张趋势，为黄河三角洲外来物种互花米草的生态防控提供科学建议． 

Cellular automata simulation of population expansion dynamics of Spartina alterniflora in the Yellow River Delta

Spartina alterniflora, a major invasive species in coastal Chinese wetland, is widely distributed in the eastern coast of China, seriously threatening local ecosystem．The population expansion dynamics of S. alterniflora was therefore simulated for the prevention and control of S. alterniflora invasion．A sexual S. alterniflora expansion was considered, population expansion was established based on cellular automata．Dynamic invasion and expansion from 2014 to 2018 was simulated and compared to remote sensing interpretation results for model calibration and verification．Distribution range of S. alterniflora in 2020 was predicted, further expansion and settlement in the low tidal flat area on both sides of the Yellow River estuary was found, with a total distribution area of 4118.15 hm2．Simulation of different scenarios with and without influence of coexistent native plants revealed little influence of native plants on population expansion of S. alterniflora．This model could therefore reproduce the invasion and expansion process, predict the expansion trend, and provide scientific suggestions for the ecological control of the alien species S. alterniflora in the Yellow River Delta．