农业指数保险研究进展评述

农业指数保险是农业生产风险管理体系中的重要工具，在过去的20余年里受到了研究者和政策制定者的广泛关注．本文回顾了2000—2020年国内外农业指数保险的相关研究，从需求影响因素分析、产品设计与优化、风险转移效率与福利改善效果评价3个方面总结了农业指数保险的研究进展，并提出研究展望．在需求方面，可应用“非理性”理论研究框架，转向集体决策及长期动态研究．在产品设计与优化方面，应促进多学科交叉，依托多尺度、多来源的数据融合和复杂关系建模方法，降低基差风险．在风险转移效率和福利提升效果评价方面，应深入研究不同区域、不同指数产品的有效性阈值，并从多利益主体、多维度标准的视角开展评价研究． 

Agricultural index insurance: a review

Agricultural index insurance, an important tool in managing agricultural production risk, is widely used in the past 20 years．Research works on agricultural index insurance from 2000-2020 are reviewed, and the following are analyzed: demand-influencing factor analysis, product design and optimization, evaluation of risk transfer efficiency and welfare improvement effect．Then some research prospect are put forward. On the demand side, the “non-rationality” theory should be applied and collective decision making and long-term dynamic studies should be carried out．For product design and optimization, multi-scale and multi-source data should be combined, and complex relationship modeling should be used to reduce basis risk．For evaluation of risk transfer efficiency and welfare improvement effect, effectiveness thresholds of various index insurance products should be set from area to area, and evaluation should be carried out by taking multiple stakeholders and multidimensional criteria into account ．