阿克苏地区土地利用变化情景模拟及其生态安全水平评价

采用CA-MCE-Markov模型设计并模拟了阿克苏地区2030年自然发展、经济发展优先、内涵提升情景下的土地利用变化，运用PSR模型定量评价了3种情景的土地生态安全水平.结果表明：1)面积变化上，内涵提升情景耕地减少了774 km²，城乡建设用地增加了100 km²，实现了集约发展；自然发展情景与经济发展优先情景耕地增加了3 436 km²，城乡建设用地增加了386 km²，呈粗放式发展.2)空间变化上，自然发展情景耕地、林地、水域反演位置不符实际、经济发展优先情景城乡建设用地布局粗放、内涵提升情景用地布局具备合理性.3)顺延历年发展状态，生态安全水平将持续降低；若以经济发展优先为发展导向，安全压力及承载力响应两方面问题依然严峻；相比之下，内涵提升情景生态安全水平大幅提升，为最优模拟方案，生态高度安全.通过评测不同情景土地利用变化差异，为解决实际矛盾、改善生态环境、谋求永续发展提供措施与方法.

Land use change and ecological security in Aksu

To explore ecological security response to multi-scenario land use changes in arid areas will help to promote scientific land development and utilization and to build ecological security systems．The CA-MCE-Markov model was applied to design and simulate land use changes in natural development, economic development priority and internal enhancement scenarios in Aksu in 2030．PSR model was used to evaluate land ecological security levels quantitatively．In terms of area change, simulation indicated that cultivated land will decrease by 774 square kilometers, urban and rural construction land will increase by 100 square kilometers in an internal enhancement scenario, to achieve intensive development．Natural development and economic development priority scenarios will increase cultivated land by 3436 km2, urban and rural construction land by 386 km2．In terms of spatial change, inversion positions of cultivated land, forest land and water area in natural development scenario are inconsistent with reality, layout of urban and rural construction land in economic development priority scenario is rough, layout of urban and rural construction land in internal enhancement scenario is reasonable．If development status continues over the years, level of ecological security will continue to decrease. If economic development is given priority, safety pressure and bearing capacity response are still serious problems．In contrast, ecological security level of internal enhancement scenario will be greatly improved, which is the optimal simulation scheme and high ecological security．By evaluating multi-scenario land use changes, we provide measures and methods to solve actual conflicts, seek sustainable development, and improve ecological environment．