面向重大洪涝灾害应急响应的灾情动态评估方法研究

以2018年8月山东寿光洪涝灾害为例，根据应急响应阶段救援队伍重点关注的承灾体灾情对象，以区域洪水淹没历时为致灾因子强度指标，采用灾情指数法构建了一种用于辅助洪涝灾害应急救援决策的洪涝灾害灾情动态应急评估方法—应急灾情指数法，包括:1）利用多时相遥感影像，获取8月21—25日山东寿光洪水淹没区域动态提取结果；2）基于淹没历时，结合人口、土地利用类型和道路等基础地理数据，计算应急灾情指数；3）利用应急灾情指数对洪涝灾害淹没区域的灾情实现应急动态评估．结果表明，本次洪涝灾害过程中，受灾最严重的区域为淹没区西部的口子村、东北部的南宅科村、李家营村、李家湾村和东部的佛屋村，该区域是此次洪水事件中应急救援的核心区域，并利用网络灾情对评估结果进行验证．本文提出的基于应急灾情指数的洪涝灾害灾情动态评估方法的评估结果良好，评估精度较高．研究结果以期为洪涝动态评估提供方法参考，并为寿光市洪涝灾害应急救援工作提供科学依据． 

Dynamic emergency assessment of flood disaster with emergency disaster index: case of Shouguang,Shandong Province in August, 2018

To initiate emergency response to severe flood disaster, and to improve efficiency of emergency rescue and reduce loss of lives and property, it is essential to build a dynamic emergency evaluation system and method for flood disaster, such as the flood disaster of Shouguang in August 2018．Objectives in rescue efforts in emergency response were identified．The inundation duration was taken as an index for disaster-causing-factor-intensity, a new disaster index, emergency disaster index, was constructed, which would be useful for decision-making in flood disaster emergency rescue．Using multi temporal remote sensing image, dynamic extraction results of inundation range of Shouguang flood in Shandong Province from August 21 to 25 were obtained．From inundation duration and basic geographic data such as population, land use and road, emergency disaster index was calculated．Emergency dynamic evaluation of flood inundation area was realized using emergency disaster index．Assessment found that during this flood disaster, the most severely affected areas were Kouzi Village west of the inundated area, Nanzhaike village, Lijiaying village, Lijiawan village and Fowu village in the East, the core area of emergency rescue in this flood event．Statistical data and network disasters verified assessment results with high accuracy．These data will serve some reference in assessment of flood and water-logging dynamic．These data will also provide some scientific basis for flood disaster emergency rescue．