| 基于粒子群算法的天气滚动预报集成技术 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊聪聪,许淑祎,徐姝.基于粒子群算法的天气滚动预报集成技术[J].天津科技大学学报,2012(1):75-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊聪聪 许淑祎 徐姝 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津科技大学计算机科学与信息工程学院;天津市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CAMGJ2012M04) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对集成预报的权重分布法,采用具有全局寻优特点的粒子群算法优化其权重系数,以更好地集中各种预报模式的优势.以天津地区天气预报为实例,建立基于粒子群算法的集成预报模型,实现多种预报模式的集成处理,结果表明该方法对于短时天气预报具有较好的准确度.
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| 关 键 词： | 集成预报 粒子群算法 权重分布法 |
Integration Technology of Rolling Weather Forecast Based on PSO |
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| XIONG Congcong,XU Shu.Integration Technology of Rolling Weather Forecast Based on PSO[J].Journal of Tianjin University of Science & Technology,2012(1):75-78. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Congcong XU Shu |
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| Institution: | 1,XU Shu2(1.college of Computer Science and Information Engineering,Tianjin University of Science & Technology,Tianjin 300222,China;2.Tianjin Meteorological Institute,Tianjin 300074,China) |
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| Abstract: | As to the weight distribution method of integrated forecast,using PSO(particle swarm optimization) which has good global optimization characteristics can optimize its weight factor and make the best of the advantages of various forecasting models.Take the weather forecast of Tianjin region as example.The integrated forecasting model based on PSO was established and the integration of several forecasting models was realized.Results show that the method has an acceptable accuracy for short-term weather forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | integrated forecast PSO weight distribution method |
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