基于反馈加权组合的电力市场下中长期负荷预测方法

本文简单分析了几种常用的中长期负荷预测方法存在的缺点,针对电力市场环境下对负荷预测精度的高要求,提出了一套精度较高且实用的中长期负荷预测的方法.应用该方法对广西某地方电网进行负荷预测,计算结果表明,该方法的预测结果误差小,在实际预测领域有较高的实用价值.

The medium term and long term load forecasting for power markets based on weight combination of feedback

In this paper, the shortcomings resist in the normal medium term and long term load forecasting solutions are analyzed. A kind of more accurate medium term and long term load forecasting solution has been given, in the case of more accurate load forecasting required in the power markets. The result that using this method on the load forecasting of some cities in Guangxi showed that the simplex method has the smaller error and higher practical value in the actual load forecasting.