中国车用氢能潜力分析

 分析了中国氢气应用和生产的现状，利用实际工业生产数据，根据工业氢气制取、转化的应用原理，得出了中国氢气消费总量与相关化工产品产量的数量关系，确定了目前中国工业氢气的生产能力和副产氢资源。采用情景分析方法，预测了2050年前燃料电池汽车发展对应的氢能需求及面临的供应选择。分析结果表明，根据目前中国的规模化工企业的生产现状，每吨合成氨耗氢量178.18~182.44kg，每吨甲醇耗氢量126.45~142.26kg，根据2007年中国合成氨和甲醇的产量，对应氢气消费量分别达920万吨和130万吨。根据中国炼油加氢工艺耗氢量和近年加氢裂化和加氢处理加工量，耗氢量达180万吨。合计中国工业氢气消费量超过1200万吨，年均增长速度9%。此外，中国是世界重要的烧碱、钢铁和焦炭生产大国，根据每生产1吨烧碱副产270m3氢气，氯碱工业每年副产氢气约41.57万吨，同时1m3的焦炉煤气可制取约0.44m3的氢气，中国焦炉煤气蕴含563.86万吨的副产氢资源。合计超过600万吨的副产氢资源可供应686万辆燃料电池大客车或2703万辆乘用车的运行，是未来重要的车用氢能来源。通过设定缓慢、中等、快速发展情景假设，中国副产氢资源可满足燃料电池汽车在缓慢情景下到2050年对氢能的需求，在中等和快速发展情景下分别支持到2046年和2040年对氢能的需求。

China's Hydrogen Supply Potential for Automotive Transportation

This paper analyzes the present state of industrial hydrogen production and application in China. Based on the industrial data and the basic theory of hydrogen production and conversion, a detailed evaluation of production capacity and by-product hydrogen resource is made, taken into account of the production of related chemicals including ammonia, methanol and petroleum products. Besides, the future hydrogen demands for the fuel cell vehicles by the year 2050 are analyzed with the scenario method, compared with the present hydrogen production capacity in China. Analysis results show that the present hydrogen consumption in China has reached to 12 million ton in 2007, with average annual growth rate of about 9%, most of which is used in three chemical industries, including ammonia, methanol and oil refinery. In the ammonia synthesis plants, to produce one ton of ammonia would consume, on average, 178.18~182.44kg hydrogen, and in the methanol plants the mean hydrogen consumption is 126.45~142.26kg. So the corresponding hydrogen consumption is 9.2 million ton and 1.3 million ton in ammonia and methanol synthesis processing, respectively. Besides, the 1.8 million ton hydrogen consumption could be deduced from Chinese hydro-cracking/hydro-treating ability for oil-refinery and the industrial data of hydrogen-consumption in each corresponding processing. Moreover there is also 6 million ton by-product hydrogen gas, which could be obtained during the carbonization process or the sodium hydroxide producing. While the by-product hydrogen is utilized in vehicles by means of fuel cell or internal combustion engine technologies, it could replace about 16 million ton of gasoline, or feed at least 6.86 million FCB (Fuel Cell Buses) or 27.03 million FCPV (Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles) in the future. Finally, three scenarios of high-, mid- and slow-growth are defined to analyze the hydrogen supply and demand for vehicle. Under the slow-growth scenario, the by-product hydrogen gas will satisfy the FCV fleet energy demand till 2050; under the mid-growth or high-growth scenarios, the by-product hydrogen gas will satisfy the FCV fleet energy demand till 2045 or 2040, respectively.